Unsuccessful challenge exposes strategy in MLB's new automated ball-strike system, a breakdown

What Happened

In a tense late-game situation, the New York Mets face off against the St. Louis Cardinals in a close matchup. With the score tied and two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning, Mets manager Buck Showalter decides to challenge a called ball that the umpire ruled on the previous pitch. Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez and pitcher Max Scherzer can be seen laughing on the mound, seemingly puzzled by the decision to challenge the call. The umpire announces that the play is under review, as the new automated ball-strike (ABS) system is being implemented for the first time in this game. The replay shows the pitch was clearly well above the strike zone, and the umpire's initial ruling of a ball is upheld. Showalter's challenge is unsuccessful, and he is left shaking his head in disbelief on the dugout steps. "What are you guys doing?" he says, chuckling at his players' apparent confusion. then takes a closer look at the pitching sequences leading up to the challenged call. Mets left-hander David Peterson starts by throwing a nasty changeup that catches Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt looking for a called strike. He then gets Goldschmidt to swing and miss at another well-placed changeup for the strikeout. Next, Mets right-hander Tylor Megill faces Cardinals outfielder Lars Nootbaar, blowing a high fastball past him before getting him to foul off another fastball. Megill then goes back to his devastating changeup, which Nootbaar is unable to check his swing on for the strikeout. The analysis highlights how the Mets' pitchers are effectively mixing their fastballs and changeups, consistently fooling Cardinals hitters. However, also reveals that the umpire has missed a couple of close calls on the edges of the strike zone, which the Mets' coaching staff appears to be frustrated about. As the game continues, the strategy and implications of the new ABS system become a central focus. The commentator notes that the Mets have now used up one of their two challenges for the game, wondering how this might affect their decision-making later on. He also speculates on how teams will need to adjust their approach, closely monitoring umpire tendencies and leveraging data to maximize the effectiveness of their challenges.

we got a full count two outs and ball

four they say nuh uhuh let's challenge

that this is the new system ump says

they're questioning my call what fools

that pitch was so high the manager

laughs at his own Catcher And pitcher

what are you guys doing this breakdown

is brought to you by DraftKings so let's

get into it here's the pitch that I

think starts the whole sequence I wanted

to look at this and then I got questions

not that pitch that's just a slider in

taken this pitch that's a change up to a

lefty that falls into the Zone it's

coming atam it's a really nice pitch and

then it falls into the Zone strike

remember that one we'll ride out the

belly at bat just to see what happens he

goes change up below he got it for a a

called strike he gets it for a swing

strike does it again and Strikes him out

now the righty comes up and this guy

he's from the Mets

orzac nasty change up that's a four seam

fast ball to Goldie one and one and

that's the change up nasty he's going to

double it up and check swing did he go

no he did not so let's go back to the

four seam fast ball blows it by him take

a look at the overlay of those two

pitches it's the same thing and then all

of a sudden it's not one goes fast and

straight the other drops like crazy now

up comes Jazz who's a lefty just like

Bellinger from the first at bat of the

game he opens him up with a slider in

and gets the chase now he's going to go

with the change up low to try and get

him to chase again you chase low once

will you do it he says nope I'm done I'm

not doing it say fine here's a way high

fast ball just to change your vision

that we're going up now and now he says

let's throw that same change up we threw

to belly on the called strike and

they're like did we get it no okay um I

thought we did 3-1 fast ball again

fouled back back two strikes to set up

that same change up and this time

they're like yep that's it like we'll

call it I think what happened was the

first one to Bellinger was a strike they

think it's the same pitch they're like

those are the same pitches what are you

guys doing let's challenge it umpire

says they're challenging this and the

challenge says is way high and the

manager as I showed you laughs at them

guys guys what are you doing okay can't

be doing that interestingly enough the

next pitch is a strike I have that as a

strike baseball Savant and all the

tracking software that's available to

the public has it as a strike what's the

guy taking a picture of behind them not

even watching the game sir just got his

camera out this is a strike called the

ball now if they had not wasted a

challenge you only get two now you only

have one as a team do they challenge

that or do they not because that's the

only missed call of the inning so far

off of that he goes with the change up

strike gets in there 1-1 back to the

fast ball they want it they don't get it

all of the public data again says that

that's a strike they missed the call if

they had challenged that both those fast

balls would have been strikes here's the

overlay they're basically the same exact

pitch which is cool and the umps

consistent but consistently wrong but

they already Ed their challenge so they

can't use it there 2-1 they come back to

vulpi with a high Sinker and speed kills

jazz is at second vulp is at first can

you turn two no can you get one no

another Lefty comes up drops the change

up in there on the inside strike one

tries to go outside and now he's

realizing okay so we're not getting that

pitch and maybe he's right and again

data says that that wasn't a strike but

they want it they think they're not

getting any calls and they didn't get

two but they could have challenged those

but they did

it just brought up so many questions 2

two fouled back 22 again change up got

it strike three nope okay sorry my bad

my bad we can't challenge again because

we already blew it how much does a blown

challenge affect you guys it's the third

inning they blew a

challenge you can't be doing that I'm so

interested in how this affects it does

the Umpire know this is he going to get

spiteful be like I'm not you think I got

that wrong you can try and make a joke

out of me I'm going to call the next two

fast balls balls uh you're going to have

to know what ums Miss in what zones like

you're going have to go into a game be

like hey this umpire he's real good on

the inside corner totis so no one

challenged that today but outside ttis

he's got a 52 overturn percent so that's

where we're going to use it I mean

there's just going to be so much

strategy the rich teams are going to

hire someone specifically just to do

this after the inning rvet the catcher

like you could tell me that it's high

you know and he's like you tell me he's

I thought it was close wasn't close at

all here's the first pitch to Jazz and

the strike to Bellinger and yeah you can

see they're not but I think the pitcher

and catcher they can't they're not

seeing it as detailed as this here's the

3-2 that they challenged and the one

that was called a strike and he that's

way up there and the two pitches they

liked to Jazz

they challenged one they didn't

challenge the other they're the same

exact pitch they both would have been

the same thing umpire got all the change

up calls correctly you got the two fast

balls the vul be wrong they challenged

the wrong thing makes me think

interesting how's it going to play out

it's not coming this year probably 2026

or 2027 this breakdown was brought to

you by DraftKings thank you to them

thank you to you guys thank you to

baseball being back I love dicing up

baseball Clips overlays all that fun

stuff see you later goodbye

What Happened

Full Transcript